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Rob Pizzola Interview 3-15-17

Mar 15, 2017|

Rob Pizzola, GM of predictionmachine.com joined the guys with analytic data

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Automatically Generated Transcript (may not be 100% accurate)

Pay its break here really appreciate you listening about to get some podcast excellence has presented by less Schwab tire is doing the right thing since 1952. A really sad for our next guest. It's gonna come ought to talk about the NCAA tournament his name is rob Zola a prediction machine dot com he could follow on Twitter at rob Zola. Also app prediction machine on 23 joins us and Gil mortgage. Mobile hotline rob thanks so much for the time member all jacked up for the NCAA tournaments and I'd just kind of just to start the interview I wanna start with. How the prediction machine works and how you guys come to. The analysis of the sleeper teams in the final four teams how does that all come together. Yes so it took everything out east peace process is very analytical and basically what we do is pick a variety of input. Things that are obviously important outcome that college basketball whether it be offensive efficiency defense efficiency. It free throws three pointers turnovers all enjoy everything you can think of that back into college basketball game and we run a simulation that we can relate each game and asserted. These 8000. Either that allows us to write that probability that so we can tell the probability of one team beating another the probability of them expecting to specific point in the current and the probability of each team winning the turnips don't get it done very numerical. Data that great then system that we use independent. That note the very successful system brought in the past. Wanna I've been really fascinated with the website. Since I had a buddy tell me about that Robin that's why we wanted to get join us talk about this. I'm you talk weather 50000 simulations with the each game in the tournament except Iraq. A lot of people is speaking about this tournament being as wide open is ever do the numbers kind of convey that that this term it's pretty wide open more than we've seen the past. And also we simulated thirteen turning right now and it falls somewhere right in the middle of being wide open. However not being white open top heavy dissident like two years ago obviously where Kentucky's. You have 44% chance to win the tournament and then there was everyone else we do not that drop off this year we get to you will recall update I this year night. Making that happen. Approximately 5% chance to win the tournament or more. And then there's a significant drop off after those nine years. So there's a little bit of a drop off there and not quite all of in the middle range but in terms of the old nineteen I think any of those. The realistic possibility. And it you know it not that no other and the possibility of winning that national championship is just that the percentages. And we're Tyler rob is always the GM a prediction machine dot com app rob. There's all on sort of a you mentioned those nine teams with a 5% chance or higher will what are the tablets into the top I'm sure they're going to be obvious answers but. Any non obvious answer is a teams that are showing up with the greatest chances to win the national title. The ones and the twos are they're very good he. All across the board and we'll meet you do not really how significant weakness in between that and let it significantly as it is really only. One major weakness that they after the law. Than to go out at least the 5% and the other thing that we're. Looking at as they thinking that it. Potentially decent damage is West Virginia but forget the foreseeable left at the same region would conduct an Arizona West Virginia the very underrated unit here. They're very good defensively. I think what a lot of people watch college basketball league and the focus on offense that would immediately sent a note to a lot of people can that it shouldn't be better if not all that. He can't and I'll realize the little things that happened on defense. And west Virginia's very good in terms of limiting opponents to back shot rebounding well. Forcing turnovers so there is that the deputies advantages of foresees an obvious yes we get deeper into the turn of the historical. He that are there. That higher than that. And then you went to succeed unfortunately for them after that we really light but there any very very typical east region. Which apple Villanova and duke we consider to get it back to teens and college basketball. And Jennifer going even further than that which at poppy is 810 feet that's an insane people Wichita State they are very good basketball team. There in the south and they're gonna have a typical path to get the final or. But that's the theme again with no conceivable weaknesses yet they played an easy schedule. Wolf this here but they are very balanced it'll do anything really poorly and they're very well coached as well. Local Wichita State they could potentially some dedicated advocate. Well a lot of people obviously going to be serious about the midwest region where organ is with Kansas is the one seed and blue oval as the two seed. Is that how's that region stack up against some of these others and simulations where organ may end up. Yeah absolutely believe that and this is the worst number one Pete in the permit in fact we wouldn't even happened at the number one we think that the ATP best team in the country. I talked earlier about how quote the talking. They're pretty balanced don't really have a considerable weakness. And it does very very bad free throw shooting team one of the work recruited into the nation. And when you play the NCAA tournament you're playing all the good in between each other you can have a lot of couples being so that is something that like the jayhawks. You know date they're gonna happen should a lot of free throws down the stretch. And traditionally they're very poor at that. Or they wouldn't have had a better chance at a lot not laughter who kick in the pac twelve tournament or these yellow obviously that's huge for that. We actually do work hard and Alex that a player levels so we can remove him from the equation and tell you exactly what you. You work this or can keep people provoked two point nine points per game you have great great protector that is a big loss for that without really hurt that. Without being set the path set up favorably to get the sweet sixteen. Rhode Island and Creighton. This obviously we have idle thought we'd have to beat. It in the first round lead in the mid 93% chance of winning that game create business succeed in the region. And create an overrated as a succeed in fact we have tending to Rhode Island in the first round. That would set up or again at Rhode Island in the round of 32 of the network interest and possibly as well so we do have an organ from. Progressing rather quickly the promised when he can get. We'll go in most articulation. We do think that being the underdog who would. And more often than not beaten in the sweet sixteen. How about that rob does solo GM prediction machine dot com is our guest column Montclair. At rob Zola you don't win we always love watching these these Cinderella teams these underdogs come out of nowhere and win. We always try to come up with a theory of why they're gonna land and figure out who's it gonna be this year's so. What do team's ten seed or higher and you mention which does say imminent or two ago but. It tends seeds or higher that that everybody should gather Ryan and as the bracket buster of this year's tournament. Yeah I'll I'll tell what you thought he just one more I'm really quick because I want people realize how good this heated but they're the ten feet and they're favored by six points over the second. Which is big. Now in the route thirty can they might end up playing Kentucky. But in that game Kentucky would only be favored by boat one and a half points over Wichita State audit neutral court so this is a very good talkers you. You can't dismiss that I think if you're looking for some sort of at the contrary bracket that you wanna consider acting going deep also and that felt. Middle Tennessee is at twelve feet you know everybody's going to look at that well over despite match up your figure out. President and cannot pay attention to transmitted friends are. Predictive but we can look at that after producing a middle Tennessee team. That could upset Minnesota Minnesota looked very overrated five in probably should've been an eight or nine seed in this tournament. To get middle Tennessee within an active over 53% of the time and should they advance the case another overrated team in Butler Butler. In the big east. They had an 89% chance to win the first game but you know if you could give us some problems as well and we do that middle Tennessee going to the sweet sixteen in over 21% of our city stimulation. Well rob it's really interesting looking over some of these numbers because I was looking over you know most likely in each freezing as you guys lay this out on the web site which is fantastic. You know you got one you Cedras Virginia final four sleeper 22 point 4%. Who is the team when you do this simulation wins the tournament the most. Yeah. You know Villanova is right now the vote complete you can call it. Without a voice our opinion when you look at her vision metric that we obviously it just efficiency for strength of schedule and that the reading what the little we get the boot over Gonzaga conducted very efficient as well but he played a very. He scheduled it here Villanova. Look like upper game. And what we do it just respect his schedule will. Art efficiencies for Villanova happened pocket being in both offense and defense so this looked very complete you know we miss hit yet that you have the toughest region that you can't fight for the toughest region this year a lot of teams under heated in there. Virginia could have been seeded higher at that you like touched on could've been seeded higher. Do get the bet to win the terminator out region of the copper output that we need to look back. I've been to get the final. The most of any team in college basketball we're expecting the wind just over 90% of its. You guys get a lot of hate mail for people to use these picks her grading purposes. To study Arianna city. Mean he wasn't getting you know he. Yes yeah. You know what with everything Exxon gained no one want to cry you when you get things right but you love. You know they love to pick on you when you get things wrong I won't say we simulated thirteen tournaments before and we would have acted yet yet. I bracket the routine time well over 12113 times we did in the ninetieth percentile or higher source it's about she'd been historically very good. You know obviously work well we're getting like we put on outcomes are not telling you with any degree of certain. At Villanova in a win in fact I'm telling you they have got 90% chance of winning attitude that. Four out of every five tournaments they're not gonna win and we're gonna have our state and we're gonna protect the wrong winner but that simply probability work that we're trying to think you know. Naked people on edge and protecting their bracket and given the exact numbers that probability of an open was rather than seeing things with any degree of certainty. Now you're so right people love to complain when you screw on the with your right they don't say anything no thank you or any ethics yes there right on that. I had a big ran about Vanderbilt they made this tournament their four games above 500 I don't understand how that happens who is the worst teams this mathematically in this tournament. Yet so we can actually look at the play any game tonight that US is a team that we just feel did not deserve to be put in that field and you know there are two and half point favorite against Providence tonight which is very surprising thought as well because it probably is being a better eat but USC would definitely be back you again you know look at. Actually went making any weakness says it. I think Syracuse had a legitimate gripe is that not getting into the terminal. Illinois it is welcome that happens and I hear I think it was Syracuse obviously the fact that they only won two games away from a long year depended. The record of the little bit as well but you always. It until record is period leading. He always happen health restricted schedule of some of these things yet they have lost more games this year but people who played a much tougher schedule that Akron the equation as well help. When we look at everything you let me as a team that doesn't deserve to be in the field and you know I toggle Virginia earlier but I can be worked one to within this year they had double digit losses but they played at an extremely good schedule. Look pocket schedule they were very efficient defensively so. He should be dock street beyond wins and losses of the entire big tribute to be looked at. Great stuff robs the soul is his name GM prediction machine dot com where you find his work. At Robert Zola on Twitter also at prediction machine. Onto to rob takes a much of the time out of your listeners enjoyed it's and I know have a new bracket to fill out and I appreciate the advice ma'am. Our guys into the game this week.